A numbers game
January 19, 2026
China’s GDP growth for 2025 was 5%, according to state-media outlet China Daily, which meets the target Beijing set, and is also the same number as 2024, with the Q4 number being 4.5%.
The 5% result for the year is not a complete surprise, but the Q4 number as shown in the China Daily suggests things are not necessarily on a good track. That is down from Q3, which was reported as 4.8%. And more substantially down year-on-year from Q4 2024 GDP reported growth rate of 5.4%, so things are looking gloomy. Reuters has also said in a report that the growth rate as announced, relates to a “nominal GDP” for the year at 4%, which it says is the lowest since 1976, excluding the 2020 pandemic year.
One has to wonder about whether there is a statistical aversion to the number four, but all eyes are now on 2026.