China is set to cross a major but less-discussed demographic tipping point, as nappy manufacturers start prioritizing the growing elderly cohort in the country over the dwindling number of infants, reports the Financial Times. The expected crossover, which affects marketing and manufacturing investments for some of the world’s largest consumer products groups, follows forecasts that China’s population older than 65 will total 365 million by 2050, which would be equivalent to the fifth-largest country based on current demographic trends.
Nappy producers, analysts and investors have said that the Chinese market for adult diapers could exceed infant products by 2025, underscoring the swift pace of the demographic and societal transition.
Jun Kato, an analyst at CLSA, said the crossover moment “could be earlier,” given the adult segment’s fast growth rate compared with infants, which is “barely growing.” This trend in the world’s most populous country mirrors changes seen in Japan a decade ago, when infant diapers started to be outsold by those for adults.