China Economic Review
Charting China’s changing economic terrain · Since 1990

China reports 5% GDP growth in 2025

January 19, 2026

China’s GDP grew by 5% to reach RMB 140.19 trillion ($20.13 trillion) in 2025, reports China Daily, citing the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

China’s value-added industrial output expanded 5.9% year-on-year in 2025, and in December alone, the output increased by 5.2% year-on-year, the state-owned outlet says.

China’s retail sales of consumer goods, an indicator of the country’s consumption strength, climbed 3.7% year-on-year in 2025, and in December alone, that figure rose 0.9% year-on-year, says China Daily, citing the NBS.

Beijing spending on BRI hits record in 2025

January 19, 2026

China’s investment in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by three-quarters to a record $213.5 billion in 2025, reports the Financial Times. This surge comes as Beijing sought to take advantage of wavering US influence around the world by increasing funding in development projects. 

The boost in new investment and construction deals was dominated by gas megaprojects and green power, says the FT, citing research by Australia’s Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Shanghai. Beijing signed 350 deals last year, up from 293 worth $122.6 billion in 2024. 

The boom in investment comes as tensions between the US and China over trade and technology disrupt supply chains and US President Donald Trump’s military interventions impact global energy markets. 

US firms more optimistic in China despite weak economy

January 19, 2026

US companies operating in China are growing more optimistic about their earnings outlook, reports Caixin, citing a new report from the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in China. This comes despite mounting concerns over a slowing Chinese economy and continued geopolitical friction.

In its 2026 China Business Climate Survey, AmCham China found that 52% of member companies expect to be profitable this year—a six-percentage-point rise from 2025. But while earnings expectations have improved, the country’s weakening economic fundamentals have overtaken US-China relations as the most pressing concern for the first time in the survey’s two-decade history.

Among the nearly 370 firms surveyed, 73% expect revenues in China to grow or remain stable in 2025. The services sector reported a significant recovery, with the proportion of profitable firms jumping 15 percentage points to 61%. Roughly one-fifth of all companies surveyed said their profit margins in China exceeded their global average — the strongest result since 2022.

China’s high office space vacancy sees hotel conversion shift

January 19, 2026

More economy and mid-range hotel operators in China are leasing office buildings for conversion to guest accommodation, reports the South China Morning Post. Such flexible, mixed-use approaches are expected to increase amid a continued weakening of the office market.

In some Chinese cities, the practice of multiple hotel brands co-leasing separate floors within a single building has become more prevalent, fuelled by interest from both property owners and hotel operators.

“Hotel operators are seeking lower-cost, well-located space, and office landlords are looking to reduce vacancy,” James Macdonald, head of research for China at Savills, a property consultancy, told the SCMP. “This trend is most common in grade B office assets in good locations, especially slightly older buildings where leasing to traditional office tenants has become more challenging.”

A numbers game

January 19, 2026

China’s GDP growth for 2025 was 5%, according to state-media outlet China Daily, which meets the target Beijing set, and is also the same number as 2024, with the Q4 number being 4.5%.

The 5% result for the year is not a complete surprise, but the Q4 number as shown in the China Daily suggests things are not necessarily on a good track. That is down from Q3, which was reported as 4.8%. And more substantially down year-on-year from Q4 2024 GDP reported growth rate of 5.4%, so things are looking gloomy. Reuters has also said in a report that the growth rate as announced, relates to a “nominal GDP” for the year at 4%, which it says is the lowest since 1976, excluding the 2020 pandemic year.

One has to wonder about whether there is a statistical aversion to the number four, but all eyes are now on 2026.