China Economic Review
Charting China’s changing economic terrain · Since 1990

China bans dual-use items export to Japan

January 8, 2026

China has banned exports to Japan of dual-use items that can serve military purposes, reports Caixin. The move comes amid already tense relations between the two countries following the Japanese prime minister’s recent remarks on Taiwan.

Exports of such items to Japanese military users and all other end-users that could help strengthen Japanese military power are prohibited, China’s Ministry of Commerce said in a statement. Any individual or organization that violates the rule by transferring or providing these made-in-China goods to Japanese groups and people will face legal consequences, it said.

A catalogue of dual-use goods published by the ministry in December includes more than 900 items related to rare earths, advanced electronics, aerospace, telecoms, aviation and nuclear-related technology.

South Korea replaces Japan as China’s top outbound travel destination

January 8, 2026

South Korea has overtaken Japan as the leading destination for outbound flights from the Chinese mainland, reports Caixin. This marks a significant shift in regional tourism trends shaped by political tensions and government advisories.

Between December 29 and January 4, South Korea ranked first among outbound destinations with 1,012 flights departing from the Chinese mainland, followed by Thailand with 862 and Japan with 736, according to data from Flight Master. Passenger data also reflected the shift. From December 30 to January 5, traffic between the Chinese cities and South Korea surged 30% year-on-year to 331,000, while travel to Japan fell 33% to 258,000, data from aviation consultancy CADAS showed on Tuesday.

The sharp turnaround follows travel warnings issued by Chinese authorities amid deteriorating diplomatic ties between Beijing and Tokyo. In response, Chinese airlines began offering free refunds and flight changes on Japan-bound routes in mid-November, later extending those waivers through the end of March. Industry analysts expect the trend to persist through the upcoming Spring Festival travel season, which begins in mid-February.

Furniture falls

January 8, 2026

Ikea has announced it will close seven of its 41 stores across China as it looks to shift to small-format outlets catering to a more targeted market. The move comes amidst low consumer spending and a weak property market. 

Ikea as a brand is in many ways symbolic of the aspirations both of China’s middle class and also foreign companies looking for long term futures in the China market. The closure of so many Ikea stores feels like the beginning of the end of an era.

The weak consumer market and property market slump appears to have no end in sight. If people are not buying property, there is little need to buy furniture. 

China’s land sales revenue drops 65% in five years 

January 7, 2026

China’s revenue from residential land sales fell about 65% in 2025 from its 2020 peak, reports Caixin. Even state-backed investment vehicles have scaled back as a result of the ongoing property downturn.

Data from the China Index Academy show that while the rate of decline narrowed slightly from the previous year, the contraction remains severe. The total planned gross floor area for all types of land sold across 300 cities fell 10.4% year-on-year to 2.46 billion square meters. Residential land transactions specifically dropped 13.6% to 620 million square meters.

According to the Ministry of Finance, revenue from state-owned land use rights transfers fell 10.7% year-on-year to roughly RMB 2.91 trillion ($416 billion) in the first 11 months of 2025. This shortfall weighed on local government fund budget revenue, which dropped 5.5% to approximately RMB 3.63 trillion over the same period. The China Index Academy estimates total land sales revenue across 300 cities reached about RMB 3.3 trillion last year, down 11.4%, with residential land revenue specifically falling to roughly RMB 2.3 trillion.

State backers back out

January 7, 2026

China’s revenue from residential land sales fell about 65% in 2025 from its 2020 peak, as a prolonged property downturn forced even state-backed investment vehicles to scale back, reports Caixin citing date from the China Index Academy.

Land sales rose quite strongly in early 2025 because of purchases by state-owned enterprises to offset problems with local government funding vehicles, but that has now faded. The gloom over the property market seems to be getting even denser. 

Vanke made headlines towards the end of 2025 for deferring on repaying its bonds and is still seeking to delay the repayment further. 2025 also saw the price of second-hand homes continuously fall throughout the year, as well as new construction slowing to the lowest level since 2000. There appears to be almost zero optimism about the property market slump finding a bottom any time soon, and the big question is how much further it can fall.