China’s exports declined in March, dealing a blow to hopes that booming sales abroad would offset weak demand at home and drive growth, reports Caixin. Exports shrank 7.5% in dollar terms in March from a year earlier, while imports fell 1.9%, the customs administration said Friday. Both numbers are well below economist forecasts. The trade surplus for the month was almost $59 billion.
Bright spots in early March data, especially from trade and industry, offered encouragement that China’s goal of 5% economic growth this year was within reach. Manufacturers reported an expansion for the first time since September, with new export orders picking up after months of contraction. This week Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley raised their 2024 growth forecasts.
“Taking the positive surprise seen earlier this year, we still view that exports should be on a recovering trend, but modestly,” said Michelle Lam, Greater China economist at Societe Generale SA. “The data may also lead to some less aggressive expectations for first-quarter GDP out next week.”