Senior Chinese leaders envisage an urban future in which tens of millions of rural dwellers move to towns and cities and turn them into big consumption engines. But this vision of development is at risk.
In May, Shanghai-based magazine Value Line conducted research into domestic migration patterns of the “floating population.” Using these results, and official government data, the report shows the movement of workers to cities gaining apace –in line with long-term plans to move the majority of citizens to cities.
Shanghai has received a net inflow of 9.54 million people; Beijing ranked second with about 7.72 million and Shenzhen was at third with about 7.56 million.
The data show that the trend of migrant workers returning home following mass layoffs in manufacturing hubs under pressure for the global financial crisis after 2008 in reverse. Now it appears that after heading back home to “pass the winter” where they have a safety net and where the cost of living is much lower, they are once again pinning their hopes on a journey to the east.
What is the attraction of urbanization? “Economically developed areas have excellent public resources that have a great magnetizing effect on the floating population,” the magazine said of the results. This means better schools and hospitals. There are also more work opportunities with higher wages on offer, an attractive proposition for a labor force that is no longer interested in toiling away in factories.
The seaward flow of China’s labor force is a product of its hitherto unbalanced development, creating a stark economic disparity between provinces. The gulf between Tianjin’s GDP per capita and that of Guizhou, for example, is roughly equivalent to that between Western Europe and sub-Saharan Africa.
So what is the problem? Over the past two decades China’s urbanization has been directed in stages, first to the big coastal cities and then into smaller conurbations known as second and third-tier cities. In the latest phase, outlined in a recent State Council blueprint, China will aim to have 60% of its population in urban areas by 2020, a goal that will be achieved by populating fourth-and-fifth- tier cities.
If migrant workers ignore those places and head to the brighter lights, suddenly the cities that are popping up all over the place will find themselves empty (see Ordos), which will hurt the property sector, local tax revenues and threaten to turn eastern China into one big patch of urban sprawl. These are just some of the concerns.
Officials are taking note. Just last month the Guangdong provincial government unveiled plans to allow migrant workers and their families, as well as non-local university graduates, to apply for local residency in small and medium-sized cities in the province. The move is partly an attempt to alleviate pressures on the province’s two largest cities – Guangzhou and Shenzhen – and divert migrants toward other urban areas. By offering the prize of an urban hukou that grants access to public services, officials are also incentivizing workers from around the country and to come work in Guangdong and to settle there permanently.
That might not be enough though. Nobody wants to live in a city with no jobs. And who would buy a house in a town that might stay deserted and risk a fall in property prices? In a survey of migrant workers conducted earlier this year by China Youth Daily, a Communist Party publication, 80.5% of respondents said they prefer jobs in first-tier mega-cities like Shanghai and Beijing, citing favorable prospects and well-paid jobs as their primary concerns.
Until China’s smaller cities begin offering job opportunities and social services to rival those of the coastal metropolises, the so-called “return home tide” heralded in the press will never be more than a trickle compared to the unrelenting waves of people that continue to sweep eastward in search of greater things.
Top 50 cities by population flows (all time)
|
Rank |
City |
Net Population Inflow |
|
1st |
Shanghai |
9,535,000 |
|
2nd |
Beijing |
7,718,000 |
|
3rd |
Shenzhen |
7,555,900 |
|
4th |
Dongguan |
6,431,800 |
|
5th |
Guangzhou |
4,615,900 |
|
6th |
Tianjin |
4,199,500 |
|
7th |
Suzhou |
4,010,700 |
|
8th |
Foshan |
3,485,300 |
|
9th |
Chengdu |
2,443,800 |
|
10th |
Xiamen |
2,047,000 |
|
11th |
Wuhan |
1,902,900 |
|
12th |
Ningbo |
1,861,900 |
|
13th |
Hangzhou |
1,776,800 |
|
14th |
Nanjing |
1,776,200 |
|
15th |
Wuxi |
1,764,800 |
|
16th |
Zhengzhou |
1,620,000 |
|
17th |
Quanzhou |
1,358,400 |
|
18th |
Qingdao |
1,172,900 |
|
19th |
Wenzhou |
1,153,900 |
|
20th |
Jiaxing |
1,112,800 |
|
21st |
Taiyuan |
1,056,300 |
|
22nd |
Changzhou |
1,039,100 |
|
23rd |
Dalian |
989,000 |
|
24th |
Shenyang |
980,000 |
|
25th |
Jinan |
857,500 |
|
26th |
Urumqi |
772,000 |
|
27th |
Kunming |
730,100 |
|
28th |
Fuzhou |
717,300 |
|
29th |
Guiyang |
706,400 |
|
30th |
Changsha |
634,700 |
|
31st |
Xi’an |
593,100 |
|
32nd |
Shaoxing |
534,700 |
|
33rd |
Yantai |
480,000 |
|
34th |
Hefei |
466,700 |
|
35th |
Zhenjiang |
440,800 |
|
36th |
Weifang |
427,400 |
|
37th |
Shijiangzhuang |
416,000 |
|
38th |
Zibo |
342,600 |
|
39th |
Tangshan |
194,500 |
|
40th |
Changchun |
124,700 |
|
41st |
Daqing |
124,200 |
|
42nd |
Nanchang |
89,000 |
|
43rd |
Harbin |
69,000 |
|
44th |
Ordos |
63,600 |
|
45th |
Yangzhou |
-117,000 |
|
46th |
Nantong |
-354,700 |
|
47th |
Huai’an |
-665,100 |
|
48th |
Yancheng |
-1,007,700 |
|
49th |
Xuzhou |
-1,341,200 |
|
50th |
Chongqing |
-3,984,400 |
Source: Value Line Data Center