China’s consumer price inflation likely slowed in January due to the later timing of the Lunar New Year, while factory-gate deflation might show further signs of easing amid rising global commodity prices, reports Caixinciting its own survey.
The survey of 12 domestic and international institutions puts the average forecast for the year-on-year rise in the consumer price index (CPI) at 0.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from December’s actual reading. Economists attributed the softer CPI reading mainly to the shifting holiday calendar. With the Lunar New Year falling in mid-February this year—nearly 20 days later than in 2025—festive demand has yet to boost January consumption.
By contrast, producer price deflation is expected to continue narrowing. The survey showed the producer price index (PPI) likely fell 1.5% year-on-year in January, an improvement of 0.4 percentage points from December’s actual reading.