Not so long ago, it was the French President Macron, then the Canadian Prime Minister Carney, and this week we have the British Prime Minister Starmer in Beijing paying respects. And there are more world leaders to come. The backdrop to this procession of course is the United States, and Trump and the fundamental shift which Carney referred to in his groundbreaking speech at Davos in mid-January. The middle level countries such as the UK have to now start assuming that they have to fend for themselves and that means doing deals directly without the benefit of any protection or united backup. A perfect situation for expert players of the game “divide and rule”.
The precondition for Mr. Starmer’s visit, approval for the Chinese application for the construction of a massive new embassy in London at the site of the old Royal Mint, was made this month after years of wrangling. During Mr. Starmer’s visit, there have been a number of announcements regarding bilateral agreements, investments and changes to tariffs and market anccess including a better deal for whiskey imports to China. The underlying factor to the relationship in the case of the UK is that Chinese students form an important part of the international students in the UK, probably around a quarter, and the fees they pay are important for the maintenance of the UK university system. Every relationship with China has certain special elements to it, and for the UK there is the situation with Hong Kong, handed over to Beijing in 1997. There was an also an interesting legal case in London that was abandoned only a couple of months ago that related.
There is no doubt that navigating the geopolitical rapids these days is tricky for a country such as the UK and pragmatism in many cases is going to win out over principles. This is a worrying time globally from many perspectives, but it’s important to keep the channels of communication open, and particularly maintain and expand people-to-people grassroots interactions as much as possible between China and the UK, for instance. These are good things and to the extent that the Starmer visit encourages them that is all to the good. Also, the extent to which the Trumpists take note of the fact that the alliance that has been so supportive of the US since 1945 is crumbling could possibly be useful. In a strange way, it is an honor to be a witness to this transformational moment in world affairs.
Have a great weekend.