It turns out the People’s Bank of China, the central bank, is not quite as bullish as everyone else on the state of the Chinese economy.
We have all been comparing the economic growth in the third quarter to last year, when the financial crisis struck.
However, the Bank points out, in its quarterly macroeconomic review, that the rate of growth between the second and third quarters of this year has slowed. Following growth of 14.9pc between Q1 and Q2 this year, the seasonally-adjusted and annualised growth rate between Q2 and Q3 was 8.7pc.
That’s a "deeply disappointing" result in a quarter when exports rebounded and the huge stimulus package was still flowing through the system, points out Capital Economics, a UK research firm.
No one else, apart from the PBOC, comes up with quarter-to-quarter growth estimates, and of course they are subject to the usual caveats about Chinese economic data.
However, if it is true that the rate of growth slowed between the second and third quarters, then it implies that the current loose monetary, fiscal and exchange rate stance will be kept in place for longer than most analysts currently believe.
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