China has reported a record trade surplus of nearly $1.2 trillion for 2025, which comes as it seeks to diversify away from the US to other markets, and also seeks to downplay exports in favor of domestic consumption. The first is working to some extent but the second is not.
Outbound shipments in December hit a 6.6% increase year-on-year, up from November which saw a 5.9% increase. Imports for December were up 5.7% after having dropped to 1.9% the month earlier, which while an improvement is still a significant gap.
This is not good for either the economies of China’s trading partners, or for China itself long-term. Having such strong exports reduces the need for the system to address domestic imbalances which are causing low consumer spending. Another is the growing reaction against Made in China exports seen in many countries which is prompting producers to move their factories out of China—hence less employment and less tax revenue. The knock-on effect is a weaker economy overall.