The week was dominated by an event that China did not attend in any substantive way — the World Economic Forum in Davos. Mr Xi has attended in the past, but not this year. But they were a player anyway by implication. Mr Trump of course was there and gave a performance, and there were some solid speeches from others. The upshot of it is that the basic alliance between the United States and the countries of Western Europe, which has been the cornerstone of global peace and stability for the past 80 years, no longer exists. And that has major implications for the rest of the world, including China.
The key thought comes from Canadian Prime Minister Mr Carney, which is that the big powers are moving away from a rules-based approach, and are operating increasingly on the basis of “might is right”, and middle powers, including Canada and the countries of Western Europe, need to acknowledge the change, and unite to address the big powers, because if they address the big powers individually they will always lose. He was implying more the US, but the same applies to all big powers, and the relationship of other countries to them.
These are dangerous times. Mr Carney recently visited Beijing, following France’s Macron and South Korea’s President Lee, and preceding a string of others due to visit soon, including the leaders of the UK and Germany. Getting the relationship right with China is imperative in this new era with the US no longer necessarily backing them up. But Carney’s point on the need for united action is well-said and appropriate in all such contexts.
The Trump approach to Greenland went in just a couple of days from absolute certainty that the US would take military action to achieve his goal of control of Greenland to: we now have a “concept of a deal” that will solve the problem without military action. What all this means is anyone’s guess, and it could change again tomorrow. But the inconsistency of it, to be restrained, provides Those in Command with an opportunity that they will no doubt seize with relish.
Meanwhile the economy continues to get worse, and the prediction for GDP growth this year was announced on Friday as a range between 4.5 to 5%. This is the first time the number 4 has appeared in a GDP announcement. And it seems like only yesterday that Wen Jiabao was saying “Protect 8″—that is 8% GDP growth, back in the days of the Global Financial Crisis.
Anyway, ups and downs. This is a volatile era, but hopefully a peaceful and enjoyable weekend for all.