Waiting for the midterms

Of all the things going on in the world right now, number one for sure is the impending midterms in the United States, which has a humongous implication for everything everywhere. But there’s no point analysing it in any detail because the result is unknown. And as Leonid Brezhnev, the late Soviet leader, once said, the problem with elections is that you can never be absolutely sure who is going to win.

That’s true. At least in the US. And the consequences depend on how it goes. It looks like the House will go blue and the Senate is likely to do the same, but we will leave a discussion of the implications until we know whether we have a divided or a fully blue Congress, because that will have a huge impact on the remaining two years of the Trump presidency—and on the whole world, including China.

We have Ukraine and Iran, and so many smaller issues, and China is generally not obviously a major player, but is in many cases playing a crucial peripheral role. For Beijing, the way the mid-terms go is a big deal. it will provide opportunities and problems, and we can only guess at how Those in Command view things. All that seems certain is that the Trump era overall is hugely beneficial from their perspective.

Have a good weekend.