[photopress:phone_user_ap_203300.jpg,full,alignright]Chinese government officials avoided using the ITU Telecom World 2006 conference in Hong Kong to say when they would allow next-generation mobile phone networks (3G) to enter the country. This is of vital interest to everyone in the communications industry and is absolutely bound to happen before the Olympic Games in 2008.
3G has been a little slow to take off in Europe (and totally daft prices were paid for the privilege of not getting very much back) but Australia has shown that a major sporting event, like the Ashes cricket matches running at the moment, can boost 3G skywards.
Telecommunications suppliers have been counting on China to provide a major lift and most are keen and eager (nay, desperate) to jump in if and when a 3G network building begins in earnest on the Chinese mainland.
At the opening ceremony for the conference on Sunday and again Monday, Chinese leaders simply declined to announce a timetable. This left many in the audience gnashing their teeth.
They had hoped to hear the answer to three questions:
• Which technology China will select?
• Which mobile phone operators will get the licenses?
• When will it happen?
Wang Xudong, the minister for the information industry, said on Monday, ‘China will consider three standards for 3G. The timing for issuing 3G licenses will be determined by the market.’
With present-day mobile phone use reaching a saturation point in many industrial economies, telecommunications supply executives are wistful/envious/desperate about the potential for 3G networks in China. This is potentially a $26 billion market for such systems.
Frederic Rose, president of the Asia-Pacific region for the newly merged Alcatel-Lucent diplomatically said, ‘This is for the government to decide, but there’s no negative.’
There is no doubt China has shown a preference for developing and choosing its own standards, and if it does, some Western companies may well be in the cold.
It is all about standards of which there are many.
• WD-CMA is the European version of 3G and backed by Nokia and Ericsson.
• CDMA 1000x is used by some American carriers.
• TD-CDMA is the one used by China.
Technically, they are related, but that is about as far as it goes. No one agrees as to what is best for China. Commercial pressures inhibit unbiased thinking.
Alcatel-Lucent seems to be playing it well. It is certain that there will be 3G networks operational in the main cities for the Olympics in September 2008. WHich is a very safe bet.
Alcatel-Lucent is still actively investing in the second-generation business (the one before 3G) which is still growing in China.
Alcatel-Lucent is prepared to jump into any of the three standards.
• Its TD-SCDMA equipment, through its Shanghai Bell joint venture with Datang Communications of China, is already being used in pilot networks in the country. And since Datang owns most of the TD-SCDMA intellectual property, Alcatel-Lucent would generally not pay royalty fees to use it.
• In addition, Alcatel-Lucent makes W-CDMA equipment for the European market.
• The merger of Alcatel and Lucent Technologies brought to the combined company Lucent’s expertise in CDMA.
Chinese manufacturers are also ready. ZTE and Huawei are among the biggest pushing for the TD-SCDMA standard, and they, too, make equipment for the competing standards. And they would like very much for the Nokia and Motorola stranglehold of the second-generation network business in China to be broken.
Samsung of South Korea would also like a piece of the action. Jeong Han Kim, senior vice president for Samsung Electronics’ telecommunication network business, said, ‘We are ready to enter that market, whether it is TD-SCDMA or W-CDMA — whatever the standard. We will be a major player in that area.’ Samsung has two factories in China.
After three years of waiting, the telecommunications industry is still speculating. But there is one thing that companies can bank on, 3G will happen in China before the Olympic Games. It is a most splendid bun fight.
Quick update:
China Netcom — the smaller of China’s two fixed-line operators — has now told reporters it expects to win a 3G license in December or the first quarter of 2007. Netcom Chief Executive Zuo Xunsheng told reporters the firm would have no technical difficulties rolling out a network based on TD-SCDMA — China’s unique, domestically developed 3G technology — if granted a license. He added he was sure larger fixed-line rival China Telecom would also secure a mobile 3G license.
Zuo Xunsheng said, ‘We will definitely get a mobile license. The quickest is by the end of the year, or next year’s first quarter.’
If true (and please note that and none of this is confirmed) China will be walking away from G3 technology as used in the rest of the world and using its own. All this for the world’s biggest mobile phone market.
Source: China Daily