Air traffic forecast to soar

Passenger and cargo air traffic will grow at an average rate of 10 per cent a year between 2001 and 2010, said Gao Hongfeng, vice minister of China's civil aviation administration. A more detailed statement prepared by China Aviation INdustry Corp(Avic I), which makes military jets and civilian aircraft, forecast that air passenger traffic would reach 530bn passenger-kilometres, about five times the 2001 total.

The increase in traffic will generate demand for 1,762 new aircraft, of which four-fifths will be required to meet new growth and the remainder to replace older aircraft. Air freight traffic will grow by 11.8 per cent a year over the same period, to reach 41bn tonne-kilometres.

According to a report compiled by Boeing, China's domestic air travel industry will grow by 9 per cent annually over the next two decades. Overall, the US group expects China's aviation market to grow by 7.6 per cent a year, necessitating the purchase of 1,900 new aircraft between now and 2022.