The year began with a bang on the other side of the world—that is the US invasion of Venezuela and the kidnapping of its president who is now to be tried in New York on drug trafficking charges. And while this has nothing apparently directly to do with China, in fact there are several elements which are very pertinent to our area of interest. A high-level Chinese delegation met with the Venezuelan president just before the US operation took place, and Beijing has been consistently supportive of Venezuela in recent years, creating a significant relationship involving loans in return for oil. Beijing in recent years has been working hard to create relationships right across the Global South and Latin America has seen a huge increase in contacts and involvement with China.
So, what’s the shape of the future? The comments from Trump and his people suggest they’ve been reading the famous George Orwell novel 1984, from an unexpected perspective. In that book, the world is divided into three empires that are perpetually at war with two ganging up against the third, with the combination constantly changing. It certainly feels in so many of their moves as if the Trumpists are aiming at a world where the United States controls the Americas with no outside influence or interference, while Russia is allowed to dominate Europe and China to dominate Asia. We repeat that it only appears that way, because of course we have no way of knowing what they are really thinking and planning.
The Venezuela move impacts on the situation in East Asia in one way—it provides an example of accepted norms of international relations being cast aside. There were those who immediately made the leap from this to the island, and just a couple of days ago, asked about the implications for Taiwan, Trump said an interview with the New York Times that he would be “very unhappy” if China changed the status quo and expressed confidence that China would refrain from doing anything while he remains president.
There is quite a lot of speculation that Trump will visit Beijing this year, with April often being mentioned as a possible rendezvous date. One presumes the island will be on the agenda and one wonders if the master dealmaker will be going into that discussion with the intention of doing a deal. One way or another, given the situation in the United States, it could well be that the period between now and the midterm elections in November has a special significance. But there are many moving parts in this game and nothing is certain until it becomes certain.
It would be nice if 2026 could be a year of peace and conciliation, but it looks unlikely.
Have a pleasant weekend in spite of it all.