With China’s primary school enrolment rate for 2025 down 10% from the previous year, and for sure falling ever faster, the shadow of the demographic steamroller is getting ever longer. Just 14.617 million children enrolled in primary schools across the country, and projections see that number halving over the next six years. 2025 also saw the lowest birthrate since records began.
The consequence of fewer marriages and fewer children is building fast. Huge numbers of kindergartens across China have closed over the past few years, we’re now seeing this trend move on to primary schools, and in a few years, it is going to be the same for middle schools. It is not going too far to say that this is a social and economic disaster.
The National People’s Congress begins today, and policymakers are set to ratify this year’s plan for the country’s economy, as well as formalize the details of the next Five-Year Plan. But alongside the country’s slowing growth, property market slump and weak consumer confidence, demographics will surely feature high on the agenda.