China’s economy looks solidly on track thanks to state-led spending on infrastructure, with the first pair of indicators on second-half growth showing good prospects. A private gauge of sentiment in the manufacturing sector, the Caixin purchasing managers’ index (PMI), rose to 50.4 from 49.6 in May, showing increased production at mainland factories. An official PMI number released last Friday also showed expansion. However, according to the South China Morning Post, doubts are growing on whether the momentum can last, with property cooling measures starting to hurt investment and probable further tightening by the US Federal Reserve expected to force the People’s Bank of China to be more hawkish. “China’s GDP growth may not slide, but its underlying power to increase the economy has faded,” Tao Dong of Credit Suisse Private Banking wrote in a note. “The so-called ‘new economic cycle’ is nothing but policy noise hyped by the increase of lending.”
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