The coronavirus likely halved China’s economic growth in the current quarter compared with the previous three months, more severe than thought just three weeks ago and triggering expectations for earlier interest rate cuts, a Reuters poll found.
The March 3-5 poll of more than 40 economists, based both in and outside mainland China, forecast growth to fall to a median of 3.5% this quarter from 6.0% in the fourth quarter of 2019, a full percentage point lower than predicted in a Feb. 14 poll.
The range of views was wide, from two banks saying no growth at all to one saying 5.0%.
Under a worst-case scenario, the median forecast for Q1 was 2.4%, compared with 3.5% in the previous poll – essentially meaning the worst-case view from three weeks ago is now the central scenario for private sector economists.