China’s growth next year could reach 6%, or even exceed it, if trade war tensions with the United States de-escalate in the near future, some private sector economists now say, reported the South China Morning Post.
China’s relatively stable job market, and the support it provides to the outlook for consumer spending, has given Beijing confidence it can take a very deliberate approach to increasing stimulus measures to help economic growth.
This confidence makes it likely that Beijing will set its growth target for 2020 at around 6%, even though many private forecasters are projecting a growth rate next year below 6% in the absence of further significant stimulus.
Liu Xuezhi, a senior researcher with the Bank of Communications, said Chinese growth could come in “around 6%” next year, with the outlook for trade negotiations determining the extent to which growth will be above or below that figure. Growth of 6% remains a relatively high rate compared to other economies and a small deviation from that level “won’t have an obvious impact on peoples’ daily lives,” he added.