China’s primary school enrolment fell to 14.617 million in 2025, a drop of 10% from the previous year and a 22% contraction from the peak in 2023, reports Caixin citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
With births further sliding to 7.92 million in 2025, projections suggest that primary school intake will shrink by nearly half in six years. Preschool education, the frontline of this demographic shock, saw enrolment fall from 35.84 million in 2024 to 32.255 million, marking the fifth consecutive year of negative growth.
China’s total primary school enrolment peaked in 2023 and began to decline in 2024. The statistics indicate there were 100 million primary school students nationwide in 2025. Research by a team led by Tian Zhilei at Peking University’s China Institute for Educational Finance Research previously predicted that the junior high school-age population would fall below 100 million by 2026, dropping to approximately 94.18 million.