According to Drewry Shipping Consultants’ latest Container Forecaster analysis, the container industry will continue to be burdened with unsustainable freight rates unless it discards its market share mind-set.
Capacity changes and vessel lay-ups are not enough to counteract the global recession, and the industry remains in serious trouble. In this analysis the bad news for the container shippers is that there is no good news.
It suggests that the glimmers of hope peddled by some industry leaders are nothing more than wishful thinking.
According to Drewry’s latest analysis, there will be a 10.3% contraction for containers by end-2009, followed by a mere 1% growth next year.
Drewry predicts that global container handling in 2009 will be 27 million TEU less than 2007, which is also bad news for the port investment sector.
Neil Dekker, editor of the Container Forecaster, commented: "While our numbers are estimates, e.g. the price of oil for the rest of 2009 is not easy to forecast, our analysis shows that the container sector is looking at a $20 billion black hole."
All of this cheery news in Eye for Transport.
Drewry believes that if carriers had invested more effort in forging good relationships and treating the negotiating process with more care, then it would be less easy for competitors to poach customers with lower prices.