There is a view of world history that it moves in century-long cycles, with the Napoleonic wars at the beginning of the 19th century marking the beginning of one cycle, World War I the beginning of another and the current geopolitical uncertainties the beginning of yet another cycle which will see significant changes to the geopolitical map. Another view is that the organization of the world today into sovereign states as created by the Peace of Westphalia in 1864 is now in the process of breaking down with no clarity as yet as to what will replace it. it’s certainly true that so many issues in the world today—the environment, the internet, space etc etc—are global and that global management is needed rather than a piecemeal sovereign state arrangement. And one last commonly expressed view—that fundamentally the United States is in decline and China is rising. So, taking all these factors into account, how is the world doing and what of China’s position?
Trump as US president has provided an opportunity for China to expand its influence because of the contrast between the perceived chaos of Trump and the perceived stability of China’s position. But China’s buddies around the world are not in great shape right now. Russia is bogged down with a war, Venezuela is suddenly now sort of under US control, Cuba is under huge pressure, and Iran may or may not be about to undergo a major shift. Both Venezuela and Iran have been major suppliers of oil to China over the past couple of decades, and this is not an ideal situation for Those in Command.
In terms of overall perceptions, BRICS and BRI feel solid and the Trumpian interest in Greenland looks ridiculous. But on the other hand, power politics is about who controls what and about the big pieces and major trends and it’s possible to argue that things are not necessarily moving in the right direction from the perspective of Those in Command. On the other hand again (the world is so complicated), we have a line of Western leaders visiting Beijing over the next few months, as different countries try to figure out the shape of the future.
China’s trade figures for 2025 show a big increase in both exports and surplus, which is a short term positive but a longer-term negative in terms of both global stability and domestic economic and systemic strength. At the heart of the great geopolitical standoff between the US and China is the health of their respective systems and economies, and while the US system is under threat from Trump, it could still hold out and the US economy still seems to be doing okay—the Dow is just a smidgen away from 50,000. Meanwhile, the China system is swathed in opacity and the economy is clearly not in good shape.
There are no conclusions here, just a review of the landscape, which is complicated and volatile. The bottom line is that never has there been a greater need to keep up with the news.
Have a great weekend.