It’s one world and the world is not at peace right now. But we appear to be approaching various singularities, inflection points where contradictions resolve themselves one way or another. Much of this is not directly China related but it is one world, as we said, and China today is not a passive player in any of these games.
The core drama is Trump. Either he becomes president again or he ends up a convicted criminal. The stakes are so high for the US and also for the world. If Trump becomes president again, it changes everything, the world would be in great danger. And while the autocracies would gain greater manœuvrabilité, a world in chaos is not ultimately conducive to a stable, prosperous and peaceful China. Trump’s fate is at the heart of that question. The latest developments are not positive for him, but it’s a long way from here to November. How he handles the pressure of all the lawsuits, not to mention the requirements of his masters, is beyond us. He may well become the GOP candidate for president, but our money is still on him never being president again.
The Ukraine situation is changing, and Trump is at the heart of that too because it is his pressure which is preventing the passage of the aid bill through Congress. But Germany, the Netherlands and the UK, among others, are upping their support for the Ukrainians in the absence of US funding. The death of Navalny could be a turning point, somehow or other. The view of Those in Command is surely that they want Putin to win, for many geopolitical and internal reasons, but our money is still on Ukraine to hold the line.
There has been much talk this week about nuclear space weapons, and whether or not Putin has available to him some new weapons system that could change the geopolitical equation fundamentally. China has also been working hard on space from a military perspective and how it all balances out against Western space capabilities, who knows. But our guess is that while Putin has the option to use it, to actually use it would probably not end well for him. Again, our view is that a world in chaos and war, even a space war, is not to China’s long-term benefit.
But the geopolitical good news is that China’s Wildlife Conservation Association is working with the National Zoo in Washington on an arrangement that could bring more pandas back to the United States, says Nikkei Asia. Maybe ping pong is next on the cards?
Have a great weekend!