Chinese exports unexpectedly fell in October after months of front-loading US orders to get ahead of tariff impacts. Customs data for October showed that China’s exports shrank 1.1%, the worst performance since February, reversing from an 8.3% rise in September, and missing a forecast for 3.0% growth in a Reuters poll.
It could be that this is where China’s exports return to reality after a long period of exporters pushing out goods early in order to avoid US tariffs. And while China is making headway in terms of developing other markets, nothing can replace the US market.
There has been for many years some negative sentiment towards China regarding trade, but it seems to be strengthening now given greater China’s exports have hollowed out industries worldwide, albeit while lowering the cost of living. Some blame can be attached to the economies that allowed this to happen, but if we were in a truly globalized world, having manufacturing be located entirely in one place would be fine.
The West opened its doors to Chinese exports on the assumption that China would reciprocate, but that has not been forthcoming. The issue being that China has refused to hold to the agreements it made upon accession to the WTO, and political trends over the past decade suggest a greater emphasis on decoupling and self-sufficiency.