A broad range of private sector analysts have downgraded their projections for China’s economic growth this year in response to lockdowns imposed on Shanghai and other cities under the government’s zero-COVID policy, reports Nikkei Asia. The new forecasts are well below the official estimate of a 5.5% expansion in gross domestic product. In April, the International Monetary Fund shaved 0.4% from its previous outlook to arrive at a 4.4% growth projection.
The other nine private sector forecasts reviewed by Nikkei paint a harsher picture. All were based on April’s economic data. The most optimistic outlooks, released by Citigroup and S&P Global separately, see China’s economy expanding by 4.2%. The two firms previously predicted 5.1% and 4.9% growth, respectively.
On the bearish end of the spectrum, Bloomberg Economics anticipates just 2% growth under its median scenario. China’s COVID-19 outbreak is expected to settle down in the second half of the year, but the sharp economic slump during the second quarter is seen inflicting a large blow.
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