Holiday bumps

Way back in the mists of time, twenty years ago and more, the late premier Zhu Rongji instituted a policy of lengthening holidays for Chinese citizens, basically in order to try to get them to spend more. Pretty much the same consumer problem that persists today—Chinese people for a host of reasons prefer to save money rather than spend it, which has economic consequences. This resulted in non-workdays being moved around, and the emergence of the dreaded working Saturday. Such as tomorrow in China. But the positive economic impact might be fading. Or rather, the numbers and the anecdotal evidence suggest that the beneficiaries of any extra holiday spending are to a large extent not in the Chinese mainland.

During the seven-day National Day holiday that just ended, there were 2.142 billion passenger trips recorded around the country, a stunning average of 306 million a day. But that was only up 0.7% year-on-year, according to data from the Ministry of Transport. This stands in contrast to the 6.2% growth seen in 2025, when to some extent the country was still recovering from Covid stay-put psychology. But on the other hand, the number of outbound trips by mainland residents this year rose 9.3% year-on-year, a boost for all those destinations yearning for a return of the profligate Chinese tourists of the 2010s.

The main drivers of all this are perhaps that the economy is not doing well, and those members of the middle class with some disposable income to play with are looking for a real break. Whatever, the whole idea of the longer holidays is probably flawed from an economic perspective in that, in spite of the “revival of spirits” possibilities, it probably in the end impacts negatively on overall productivity. Workers may disagree with this, of course, and a core stated principle of the system anyway is the slogan on that gate in Beijing saying, “workers of the world unite”. Possibly in a resort in Thailand.

Have a great weekend.