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Home prices may fall 20%

BNP Paribas believes China’s home prices may fall by as much as 20% iin the second half, as government measures to curb credit, increase land supply and a potential property holding tax cool speculation, according to BNP analysts.

BNP Paribas analysts Chen Xingdong and Isaac Meng said in a report, “The State Council and political leadership have demonstrated a strong political will, at least at a central level, to curb the property bubble.” The cabinet “considers elevated property prices and further rises as not only economic-financial risks but also as undermining social stability.”

Bloomberg BusinessWeek reported that BNP joins Citigroup in predicting prices may drop as much as 20% as tightening measures take hold.
A “turning point” in the real-estate market is “unavoidable,” Citigroup analysts Oscar Choi and Marco Sze said in a report.

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