As expected, the GDP growth rate number for 2024 was released, and just as we predicted in last weeks missive, the number given was 5.2%. Now, we are not saying that the process by which this number was arrived at was predictable from a perception calculation perspective, but it does raise our eyebrows that so many media organizations say that China had a GDP growth rate of a certain number without adding the word “reported.”
Another number released this week by the system was a number for youth unemployment, which was given as 14.9% for December. What is most interesting is that the youth unemployment statistic had been released on a regular basis for several years, until it reached 21.3% in June of last year, at which point it was cancelled. There has since been radio silence until the December number was released this week. Now again, we have no information that allows us to contradict this number, but our overall anecdotal atmospheric sense of the state of China’s economy over the second half of 2023 makes it hard to believe that the unemployment number went from 21.3% to 14.9% over those six months.
Yet another number that we espied this week was that, according to a Central Bank advisor, only around 10% of LGFV debt is being channelled into new projects, with the rest being used to repay the principal and interest on existing debt. This is not a healthy situation.
Speaking of numbers, tomorrow is day number six of the week. So enjoy the weekend!