Reciprocal visit

Mr Xi is going to Washington to meet with Mr Trump on September 24, it was just announced. Both leaders have a constant parade of foreign dignitaries who come visit, but these two are special. And the way they interact, in the context of the tricky US-China relationship, is the most extraordinary theater. Trump’s recent visit to Beijing featured a great show of Chinese respect, followed almost immediately by a visit by Mr Putin. Mr T was granted special access to the heart of the exquisite imperial garden that is Zhongnanhai, while Mr X will get to see the construction work on the ruins of the East Wing. Trump’s talks with foreign leaders, seated on either side of an increasingly ornate fireplace, are often exercises in psychological warfare. With many of them, Mr T insults and threatens, but that ain’t going to be how it is with Mr X, who Trump often says he admires greatly. Mr X, for his part, tends to seem aloof. The dynamics are curious and perplexing, and one wonders how they play into the actual discussions on bilateral relations, which become more fraught all the time.

AI is one of the big topics, with the US accusing China of hoovering up all the data and methodology of US AI models. But then again, the US could do the same back, and maybe does, who knows. OpenAI also just announced it had a rogue AI agent that had done the same thing with another US AI model—allegedly on its own volition. We said a few months ago that with regard to the island, the period leading up the mid-terms in November was probably particularly dangerous, but currently there is—famous last words—no sense of anything in the immediate offing. Then again, China is always as it is, until the day when it is not. What Mr T’s real position on the island is, who knows.

There are lots of other topics to discuss, including trade and the Iran war, which just goes on and on, no doubt on balance to the glee of Mr T’s guests on Sept 24. But overshadowing the talks are the mid-terms, and the prospect that there might be enough of a blue tsunami in November to offset the red election machinations to the extent that Trump is somehow restrained, or at least mightily distracted, for the remainder of his term. The mid-terms truly are the most significant thing in prospect for the world at present. And then there is Ukraine, where China’s little brother seems to be having a lot of trouble, despite massive support. So much for the bros to discuss or to avoid discussing!

Meanwhile, the summer proceeds as if none of this mattered. Have a great weekend!