September import, export data keep China trade outlook muddled

China’s exports fell only 3.7% in September year-on-year, as imports by value fell more than 20% for the same period–though monthly exports rose in absolute terms to every market except Taiwan in August, Reuters reported. Julian Evans-Pritchard with Capital Economics warned that annual export readings may be distorted downward by comparisons with strong export performance at the end of 2014, which many suspected was inflated by yuan speculation disguised as trade. Still, ANZ economist wrote in a note that “September’s import figure does not bode well for industrial production and fixed asset investment.” China also posted a trade surplus of US$60.34 billion for September, up slightly from August.