China economists increasingly see tighter monetary policy by the People’s Bank of China as a downside risk, voicing concerns that efforts to curb capital outflows and a real estate bubble will weigh on the economy. Tighter monetary policy has surged to second place on a list of economists’ top concerns about China in a new Nikkei survey. The People’s Bank of China has guided short-term interest rates slightly higher recently. Many respondents expect the central bank to nudge rates upward over the next year via such channels as open-market operations, rather than by changing the policy rate or the reserve-requirement ratio. Monetary tightening will strongly influence property, stock and commodity markets as well as the overall economy, said Sean Taylor, chief Asia-Pacific investment officer at Deutsche Asset Management. As in the previous quarterly poll, respondents expressed the greatest concern about a downturn in real estate.
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