According to Chinese astrology, the fire horse year, which comes around once every 60 years, is one of intense change with dynamism, instability and creativity at the fore. But you don’t have to be a Chinese astrologist to be able to predict that given the current state of the world. In nearly all areas, there seems to be a sense of impending inflection points. Different points in different places, but that same sense of changes on the way can be very clearly felt in each quarter.
Coming up next month, we have a meeting in Beijing between the CCP and a delegation from the opposition party on the island, the KMT. This will be significant and will have been mapped out in great detail ahead of time by both sides. If there is a Trojan horse that can prepare the ground for a change, it is the KMT. That meeting will also be a prelude to the expected visit by Mr. Trump to Beijing in April, an event that for sure is going to be a reflection of at least dynamism in the field of geopolitics. Meanwhile, the United States is becoming inward-looking, focusing more and more on the great battle between the two visions for the country which will culminate in the midterm elections in November. This is going to create a vacuum in international affairs for the coming months, which is going to provide an opportunity for all sorts of other actors to take various steps. It might also, as part of that US process, result in all sorts of initiatives and changes around the world.
In China, we have an economy which is clearly going through a rough phase although with quite a few shiny spots in the mix. The property market, debt, unemployment and consumer confidence, are all problematic, but batteries and EV’s are doing okay, and China’s overall positioning in the global geopolitical jigsaw is still benefiting overall from the chaotic American situation and the general wobbly trend of the global economy. Quite a few messages from the center in recent weeks have focused on the relationship between the party and military, with the latter coming firmly under the control of the former. The Central Military Commission of the party, which is in charge of China’s military, puzzlingly now has only one member apart from the commission’s chairman, and this has raised all sorts of questions which, as we head into Chinese New Year info vacuum, remain shrouded in mist.
Strange times all round. The wood snake, preparing to slither away, was unprecedented in so many ways and I guess all we can do is hope that the horses are happy and benevolent.
Have a great lunar new year break, for however many days you can manage. Whatever is coming up is beyond our control and we simply watch as history unfolds.