China’s manufacturing powerhouse, Guangdong province, has reported a GDP growth rate of just 3.9% for 2025, falling short of the target for the province of 5%. While the figures have only been released for a few provinces/regions, Guangdong appears to be on the lower end. Manufacturing hubs Shandong and Zhejiang both announced 5.5%, while Shanghai and Beijing both reported 5.4%.
According to Caixin, sluggish domestic demand and the real estate sector were the biggest drags on the province’s growth. Property’s contribution to the province’s GDP shrunk to just 7%—down from 11% in 2020 and 7.4% in 2024. It also pointed out that foreign trade from Guangdong “offered some cushion”—increasing 4.4% to RMB 9.5 trillion, which accounted for almost a quarter of all of China’s net trade growth.
Guangdong, and especially the city of Shenzhen which sits at the southern part of the province on the border of Hong Kong, has long been the shining star of China’s economy, producing many of the products exported around the world. It’s also home to many of China’s innovative tech companies—the ones that are promising to lead China into the future. While a more complete picture of China’s province-by-province growth is still yet to emerge, the poor performance of Guangdong suggests things are not rosey.