The war in Iran continues and its impact is growing. It has the potential to push the world, as well as individual regions and countries into troubled waters, and that was indicated most clearly in terms of China by the unusual move on Wednesday of announcing that Foreign Minister Wang Yi had urged Iran to find a solution. Logistics routes are screwed up, oil flows are fundamental to the running of economies… and this needs to end, is the message. China’s economy is in no shape to withstand a long period of global trouble.
Meanwhile the unreality of Trump world also continued to grow, with uncertainty over what the goals of the war are, and how far the Trumpists are willing to go. What does seem increasingly apparent is that the US actions seem to be in response to Israel and Saudi suggestions, which is weird. Another interesting angle to watch is China’s relationship with Iran, its role in the technology and hardware that Iran has for both domestic control and defence purposes, and the extent to which China will support or stand back as this situation develops. Nothing is certain, but it now looks ever more likely that there will be no regime change in Iran any time soon. The issue to be resolved now is the Strait of Hormuz rather than the Iranian government.
This all seems to be having an impact on Trump’s standing in terms of US public opinion, which could impact on the mid-term elections in November. If the blue wave is high enough, it could create a crisis in the US system that dwarfs even the Iran war in significance, because the Trumpists are surely not going to be willing to concede easily. Meanwhile, Beijing has an opportunity to reach out to various other parties, of whom the Philippines is one.
The dice have been rolled but haven’t yet settled, so we can’t see the numbers yet.
Have a good weekend.