The summit to come

As the world gets ever more complex and the prospects for the midterm elections in the United States become more and more terrifying for the Republican Party—a situation which has global implications for sure—we have a visit apparently scheduled for Mr Xi to visit Washington in the middle of next month. It’s not certain it will happen, and this is certainly a strange time in many ways for such a meeting, particularly given the rather chaotic situation with Trump at its center.

The Chinese leadership has much to consider given the possibility that the GOP loses control of the House of Reps and maybe the Senate as well. That would mean the last two years of Trump’s second presidency would be a long lame duck waddle with much chaos and no doubt impeachment proceedings and an increasingly concerned group of Trumpists facing the prospect of all their work to Make America Different being rolled back if the other team w2ins the 2028 presidential election. The bottom line is that even if a meeting takes place, it’s difficult to know how long whatever is agreed to holds.

On the other hand, the Trumpian chaos directed so many global opportunities for Beijing. And there is for sure a truly long list of issues that the United States and China should address, including, but not limited, the two wars in progress, the island, Korea, trade, semi-conductors and that’s just the start of a wide range of tricky bilateral issues.

Trump’s visit to Beijing earlier in the year in many ways seemed to acknowledge the Chinese position that the two countries are equal superpowers on the world stage. And in some ways at least, that is now true, and more sop every day given the impact the Trumpists are having on America’s standing. Trade war with Canada? What? But the US continues to operate from a position of great strength, regardless of how many Patriot missiles are left in the pantry. The US has not only military strength, but also economic, social and institutional strength. There is also a fluidity to the US situation which doesn’t exist in so many other countries, and while is here today, he will almost certainly not be in 2029.

On the Chinese side, they may see an opportunity Ouse a meeting to further their goals, and there is for sure pressure from China business circles for Mr Xi to work on providing China with continued access to US technology and US markets. What Mr Xi will presumably want to avoid is the kind of fireside chats that Mr T likes to stage with many foreign leaders.

Unlike many of these weekly chats, we’re dealing here with something that is speculative, that is a visit which might not occur. So close to the midterms, it would be fraught with political danger for both sides. We are bystanders as the world keeps getting ever more interesting. And not necessarily in a good way.

Have a great weekend.