For the first time, China’s trade surplus topped $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, despite a decline in exports to the US due to high tariffs. While US exports fell one third since the same period last year, exports to Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia surged.
In November, China’s exports grew 5.9% year-on-year, while imports only grew 1.9%. This trade surplus record comes as Beijing is addressing continued weak consumer demand with new measures, and is increasingly talking about the need for self-reliance. This surplus indicates that it is still heavily reliant on the outside world to keep its economy moving. It’s also reflective of the fact that people are buying less imported goods, and hence spending less.
Such a trade surplus is concerning for the whole world and is already creating friction with many countries. Indeed, French President Macron, during his visit last week, threatened Beijing with tariffs if it doesn’t address the imbalance.