Waiting for the miracle

Anyone looking for some good news after a downer of a Monday will have to hope things start looking up tomorrow. Beijing is certainly trying to do its part: Officials are reportedly scurrying to put together a series of measures, including interest rate cuts and more infrastructure spending, to push things along. But trust the economists to spoil the party: some are rightfully pointing out that some of the measures – specifically higher tax rebates – don’t address the fundamental problem of lower demand. That demand (or lack thereof) is being blamed for the lowest industrial output in six years. In reality, it’s not just lower demand – Olympics-related factory shutdowns did their part – but Olympics-free forecasts are looking gloomy. Similarly gloomy are the job prospects of Citic Pacific’s financial director and financial controller, both of whom resigned after it emerged that the Hong-Kong listed arm of China International Trust and Investment Corp may have lost US$2 billion in bad foreign exchange bets. Oops. Seen in that light, China Mobile’s “disappointing” third-quarter results, in which profits grew by a lower-than-expected 26%, sound pretty upbeat. Like yesterday, when the All-China Federation of Trade Unions said it would work harder for migrant workers, the big winner seems to be the little guy. As part of its attempts to boost the rural economy, Beijing will be paying more for grain reserves purchases and encouraging higher grain production capacity. Sadly, the really little guys are falling sick with hand, foot and mouth disease, and a funding crisis means that their parents may be unable to afford health care.