China set its economic growth target for 2026 at 4.5%-5%, a downgrade from the 5% pace achieved ​last year, reports Reuters, which says the target leaves room for greater, albeit not decisive, efforts to curb industrial overcapacity and rebalance the economy.

China also released its 15th five-year plan, and as ‌widely expected, pledged investments in innovation, high-tech industries, scientific research and a “notable”—but unspecified—increase in household consumption as a share of economic output.

In terms of stimulus, China plans a budget deficit of 4.0% of ​GDP, similar to last year. It set unchanged special debt issuance quotas for the central government of RMB 1.3 trillion ($188.49 billion) and for local governments at RMB 4.4 ​trillion. China pledged to raise minimum monthly pensions by RMB 20 per person and basic medical insurance subsidies for rural, non-working people by RMB 24. It said it wants to increase ‌education spending, ⁠subsidise childcare and reform public hospitals.

China set a cautious new climate target for the rest of the decade, reports Bloomberg, which says the goal frustrates hopes for tighter policy that would accelerate the nation’s work to curb emissions.

A new goal pledges to cut carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 17% by 2030 and compares to a previous objective to deliver an 18% reduction in the five years through 2025—a target that recent data indicates China missed.

President Xi Jinping’s target to hit a peak before 2030 will be “accomplished as planned,” and a system of controlling the total amount of carbon emissions—in addition to intensity targets—will also be implemented, Premier Li Qiang said during the National People’s Congress.

On the second day of the National People’s Congress (NPC) the country’s growth target of 4.5-5% was formally ratified. The figure was first proposed during the party’s plenum in October, the lowest growth target set by Beijing since 1991.

A lot has changed since the target was proposed by the party back then. The current Iran war is just the highest profile of the various changes coming in an increasingly volatile world and the fallout, at the very least in terms of disruption oil and natural gas supplies from the Middle East, will be significant and will stretch on through this year. Given these new uncertainties reaching even this already lower target is presumably going to be incredibly difficult.

The troubles have had a significant impact on stock markets, including the Hong Kong and Shanghai ones. But markets around the world were generally up yesterday and today, and premier Li Qiang’s speech on the second day of the NPC provided a good excuse for the Hong Kong market to rise in the morning, although it later fell back.

China’s primary school enrolment fell to 14.617 million in 2025, a drop of 10% from the previous year and a 22% contraction from the peak in 2023, reports Caixin citing data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

With births further sliding to 7.92 million in 2025, projections suggest that primary school intake will shrink by nearly half in six years. Preschool education, the frontline of this demographic shock, saw enrolment fall from 35.84 million in 2024 to 32.255 million, marking the fifth consecutive year of negative growth.

China’s total primary school enrolment peaked in 2023 and began to decline in 2024. The statistics indicate there were 100 million primary school students nationwide in 2025. Research by a team led by Tian Zhilei at Peking University’s China Institute for Educational Finance Research previously predicted that the junior high school-age population would fall below 100 million by 2026, dropping to approximately 94.18 million.

China’s Supreme People’s Court has issued a warning against the practice of demanding excessive betrothal gifts, reports Caixin. The move comes as part of a state campaign to curb costly wedding customs that authorities say are destabilizing families and imposing heavy financial burdens.

In a press briefing Monday, the high court reiterated the legal principle prohibiting the “exaction of property through marriage.” The move addresses the traditional custom of caili—cash or assets paid by the groom’s family to the bride’s—which has spiraled into bidding wars in some regions, creating a barrier to marriage in a country struggling with demographic decline.

The 2026 policy roadmap laid out by the court calls for cultivating “simple and civilized” wedding cultures. The Supreme People’s Court said it will integrate the governance of high bride prices into its routine work, utilizing circuit courts to reach grassroots levels and collaborating with the All-China Women’s Federation to prevent disputes before they escalate.