China Economic Review
Charting China’s changing economic terrain · Since 1990

Hong Kong stocks fall to three-month low

March 5, 2026

Hong Kong stocks fell to a nearly three-month low on Wednesday, reports the South China Morning Post. This comes as surging oil prices fuelled bets that rising energy costs would stoke inflation and cripple global growth.

The Hang Seng Index closed 2% lower at 25,249.48, the lowest since December 16. The Hang Seng Tech Index lost 1%. On the mainland, the CSI 300 Index slid 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite Index retreated 1%.

All but 10 stocks on the 88-member Hang Seng Index fell. Alibaba Group dropped 3.6% to HK$129.90 and Tencent shed 0.9% to HK$506. Oil producers also gave up some of their earlier gains spurred by the surge in the fuel price, with PetroChina sliding 3% to HK$10.12 and CNOOC weakening 1.9% to HK$27.08.

China’s auto exports see Iran war disruption

March 5, 2026

The escalating conflict in Iran has disrupted Chinese car shipments to the Middle East, reports Caixin. The situation is paralyzing Chinese business operations in Iran and threatening the viability of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a crucial transshipment hub.

A source at a Chinese state-owned automaker told Caixin that his company’s business in Iran has stalled, with the ripple effects already spreading to other markets. A car trader said that many Chinese auto traders use Dubai as a transit point for exports to other markets in the Middle East and West and North Africa, but that hub is now considered unsafe due to the military operations.

The turmoil endangers a vital artery for China’s auto industry, which relies on the UAE to re-export vehicles across the region and beyond, potentially undermining its global shipment growth after a record-breaking year. In 2025, the UAE was the third-largest export destination for Chinese vehicles, trailing Mexico and Russia, according to data compiled by Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Shipments of Chinese cars to the UAE doubled year-on-year to 567,000 units last year.

Birthrate blues

March 5, 2026

With China’s primary school enrolment rate for 2025 down 10% from the previous year, and for sure falling ever faster, the shadow of the demographic steamroller is getting ever longer. Just 14.617 million children enrolled in primary schools across the country, and projections see that number halving over the next six years. 2025 also saw the lowest birthrate since records began.

The consequence of fewer marriages and fewer children is building fast. Huge numbers of kindergartens across China have closed over the past few years, we’re now seeing this trend move on to primary schools, and in a few years, it is going to be the same for middle schools. It is not going too far to say that this is a social and economic disaster.

The National People’s Congress begins today, and policymakers are set to ratify this year’s plan for the country’s economy, as well as formalize the details of the next Five-Year Plan. But alongside the country’s slowing growth, property market slump and weak consumer confidence, demographics will surely feature high on the agenda.

Chinese tech companies in Middle East face disruptions

March 4, 2026

Chinese technology companies that have rapidly expanded across the Middle East are facing disruptions to their operations in light of the Iran conflict, reports the South China Morning Post. Baidu, WeRide and Meituan are among companies halting operations or instituting remote work, as some Chinese nationals seek to escape the region.

Baidu, which began operating its Apollo robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), in January, and was carrying out testing in the country’s commercial hub Dubai, halted operations and testing on Sunday in coordination with local authorities’ requirements. 

Meituan told the SCMP: “We have asked all employees to work remotely until further notice as a precautionary measure,” adding that services could be temporarily limited or suspended in specific areas if required to ensure safety. The Chinese food delivery giant has expanded aggressively in the Middle East over the past year under the brand Keeta, and now has a presence in the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain.

WeRide, a Guangzhou-based autonomous driving start-up, runs robotaxi services in Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, employing nearly 100 people across the region. Its Dubai fleet had been suspended since the weekend “pending notice from local regulatory authorities”, the company said, while operations in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh continued. All employees in the region were working remotely and limiting unnecessary outings, Eric Dong, a WeRide employee based in the Middle East told the SCMP. The company has stocked essential supplies and moved vehicles indoors.

China oil refiners able to weather short-term Iran conflict 

March 4, 2026

Refiners in China, the world’s top oil importer, have enough supply on hand ‌to weather near-term disruption from the Iran conflict, reports Reuters citing traders. The supply is bolstered by recent record purchases of Iranian and Russian crude and robust government stockpiling. 

China has around 900 million barrels ​in strategic inventories, or 78 days’ worth of imports, according to estimates by Vortexa and traders.

“The market is ​on edge and the situation could change by the day,” a senior trader with a large independent refiner told Reuters. A second trader at ​a Shandong province-based plant that processes Iranian oil said he “couldn’t bring himself to bid” as he could not gauge how the situation would evolve. That said, there is not much concern about supplies for March and April deliveries, with abundant Russian and Iranian barrels, the trader added.