China’s demand for petrol is likely to peak as early as next year as electric vehicle sales soar, several analysts say, bringing forward an energy transition milestone for the world’s biggest polluter and a headache for global refiners, reports Reuters. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and consultancy Rystad Energy have brought forward forecasts of China’s peak gasoline demand by about a year to 2024, while Chinese state majors PetroChina and Sinopec see it in 2025.
The earlier halt in gasoline demand growth in the world’s Np. 2 oil consumer will push Chinese refiners to ramp up exports of the motor fuel to Asia and spur them to make more naphtha, diesel and jet fuel, crimping refining margins in the region.
“It will be a challenge for refiners to rebalance their output,” said Toril Bosoni, IEA’s head of oil industry and markets division. “We are seeing a shift towards higher middle distillates yields like jet fuel and gasoil … also seeing rebalancing of naphtha and gasoline into petrochemicals feedstocks.”
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