China’s economy could soon see its first quarterly decline since 1992 due to the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, reported Caixin.
Several financial institutions have lowered their forecasts of China’s GDP performance after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing major economic indicators, including infrastructure investment, factory output and retail sales, plunged by double-digit percentages in the first two months of this year.
Goldman Sachs (Asia) revised down its projection for China’s first quarter GDP to a year-on-year contraction of 9% from a previous estimate of 2.5% growth, according to a Tuesday research note. Standard Chartered Bank wrote in a Monday note that it had lowered its estimate to a 4.2% year-on-year decline from 2.8% growth.
Wang Tao, an economist of UBS Group AG, wrote in a Caixin column on Wednesday that she had lowered her first-quarter GDP forecast to a 5% decline and full-year estimate to 1.5% growth. Morgan Stanley forecasted China’s economy will contract 5% year-on-year in the first quarter before rebounding into expansionary territory in the second quarter in a Tuesday report.