Lots of movement in all three rings of the global news circus we advanced last week—the US, Europe and China. In the US, the walls are clearly starting to close in on the former president. He has been hit with definitive civil charges in New York, and now we wait for something on the criminal side. It’s a moment of huge significance for the US, and by extension the rest of the world—does the system that allows it to claim to be the shining city on the hill actually work? We are in the process of finding out. Then in Europe, Mr Putin announced conscription to offset troop losses in Ukraine, resulting in a rush for flights out of Russia, and much pondering by analysts about to what extent new recruits can make a difference.
And in this ring, lots of developments on the island. We had Biden categorically state that US troops would be deployed to protect it in the event of an attack, and while his aides rolled that back somewhat towards the “strategic ambiguity” that has been in place for decades, he is the commander-in-chief. Then the heads of America’s biggest investment banks appeared before a congressional committee and said that in the event of a conflict, they would obey any government instruction to divest themselves of investments in China, as they did in terms of Russia and the Ukraine conflict. That might be more persuasive than the threat of boots on the ground.
Beijing, meanwhile, came up with a surprisingly warm and fuzzy new statement on unification, saying that following such a development, the island’s residents could basically decide how they wish to organize themselves. In short, there are pieces in motion on that issue, that’s for sure, and on many other issues, too, if we are to believe some of the rumors out there about what’s coming up for the 20th Party Congress and beyond. But it’s all speculation and we’ll almost certainly just have to wait for Oct 16 to get a clear reading on where we’re going.
Have a pleasant weekend.
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