Musical chairs

Xi Jinping: 习近平 

Current post: Vice President, Vice Chair of the Central Military Commission, Politburo Standing Committee member

Factional background*: Princeling

Previously the party secretary of Zhejiang province and Shanghai, Xi seems almost certain to inherit Hu Jintao’s triple roles of president, party secretary and head of the military. Xi is known in China for taking a tough stance on corruption and his appetite for political and economic reforms, such as market liberalization for foreign investment. His father is Xi Zhongxun, a vice chairman of the Politburo Standing Committee under Deng Xiaoping.

Li Keqiang: 李克强 

Current post: Executive Vice Premier of the State Council; likely the only member of the Politburo Standing Committee besides Xi who is young enough to qualify for another term

Factional background: //Tuanpai// (a member of the Communist Youth League)

There has been some speculation that Wang Qishan, not Li, might take up Wen Jiabao’s position, but Li’s recent public appearances seem to have put those doubts to rest. Previously the party secretary of Liaoning province and the head of the Communist Youth League, Li has championed initiatives including affordable housing, agricultural modernization, clean energy and strengthening the middle-class to achieve an “olive-shaped” wealth distribution.

Wang Qishan王岐山 

Current post: Vice Premier of the State Council in charge of financial affairs, member of the Politburo

Factional background: Princeling

Formerly a top executive at the People’s Bank of China and the Construction Bank of China and the mayor of Beijing, Wang is a proponent of financial liberalization and managed China’s largest bankruptcy restructuring in 1998. He is expected to be a core figure in the fifth generation of leaders.

Liu Yunshan 刘云山 

Current position: Politburo member, head of the Propaganda Department

Factional background: //Tuanpai//

As head of the propaganda department, Liu has worked to gain more effective control over the media and internet and promote China’s image overseas. Because he has already served two terms as a Politburo member, he has a good chance of being promoted to the Standing Committee.

Liu Yandong: 刘延东 

Current position: Politburo member, State Councilor

Factional background: //Tuanpai//, (princeling)

Previously the head of the United Work Front of the CPC, Liu is the only woman now on the Politburo. Liu crosses factional boundaries; she was a prominent member of the Communist Youth League and has close ties with Hu Jintao, yet is also the daughter of Liu Ruilong, a former Vice Minister of Agriculture.

Li Yuanchao: 李源潮 

Current position: Poliburo member, head of the Organization Department

Factional background: //Tuanpai//, (princeling)

Li previously served as the party secretary of Jiangsu, where he introduced the practice of assessing local officials’ performance based not only on economic growth but also social and environmental factors. Cheng Li of the Brookings Institution speculates that Li’s ties with both the //tuanpai// and princelings could make him a key compromise candidate in the future; Li is a mentee of Hu Jintao, and his father, Li Gancheng, was former vice mayor of Shanghai. Liu is known as a reformist who champions the development of “intra-party democracy.”

Wang Yang 汪洋 

Current positions: Party Secretary of Guangdong, Politburo member

Factional background: //Tuanpai//

Wang was formerly the party secretary of Chongqing, the seat now held by Bo Xilai. Wang is known as a proponent of media transparency and financial reforms to benefit the middle class. He rose to power through the Communist Youth League, Hu Jintao’s power base. Because he is relatively young (he was born in 1955), Wang stands to serve on the Standing Committee for two terms after 2012, making him somewhat of a political heavyweight.

Zhang Gaoli 张高丽 

Current positions: Party Secretary of Tianjin, Politburo member

Factional background: Jiang Zemin’s protégé

An economist by profession, Zhang was previously the party secretary of Shandong province and Shenzhen. He is neither a princeling nor a member of the Communist Youth League, but was instead brought to power as a mentee of Jiang Zemin. His policy initiatives have included promoting foreign investment and faster GDP growth.

Zhang Dejiang 张德江 

Current positions: Vice Premier, Politburo member 

Factional background: Princeling

Zhang was formerly the party secretary of Zhejiang and Guangdong, two highly developed provinces. Zhang has already served two five-year terms in the Politburo and thus has a good chance of being promoted to the Standing Committee. His policy priorities include promoting “indigenous innovation,” developing state-owned enterprises and encouraging the global expansion of Chinese businesses.

Yu Zhengsheng 俞正声 

Current positions: Party Secretary of Shanghai, Politburo member

Factional background: Princeling

Yu was formerly the party secretary of Hubei province and the minister of construction. He is the son-in-law of People’s Liberation Army Major General Zhang Zhenhuan. He has fought for private sector liberalizations and strengthening rule of law. Yu is one of the oldest of the group, but will be able to retain his seat in the next Politburo if the earliest permissible birth year is 1945. If he is not asked to retire, his seniority would make him an important figure in the next Standing Committee.

Bo Xilai 薄熙来 

Current positions: Party Secretary of Chongqing, Politburo member

Factional background: Princeling

Some speculate that Bo, previously the minister of commerce and governor of Liaoning, was assigned to work in Chongqing in large part because of its distance from Beijing. Even so, he captured the media’s attention as party secretary of Chongqing by launching a high-profile campaign to fight organized crime and raise morale called “striking black triads” and “singing red songs.” His “Chongqing model,” a program to equitably distribute wealth, has garnered accolades from Beijing. Bo Xilai is the son of Bo Yibo, one of the “eight elders” of the Communist Party.

Meng Jianzhu 孟建柱

Current positions: State Councilor and Minister of Public Security

Factional background: Shanghai Gang

Recent rumors have it that Meng may be a candidate to take charge of the PSC’s security and law enforcement portfolio.

*Source: Cheng Li, Brookings Institution