China's exports will continue to rise in 2003, but by less than the 22 per cent recorded last year, according to Chinese economists quoted by China Daily. The lowest growth rate forecast was 5-10 per cent, made by Zhang Xiaoji, a senior researcher with the development research centre of the State Council, who stressed the growth in competition and increasing trade protectionism.
The highest forecast was 12-15 per cent, by Wang Yiming of the macroeconomics studies institute of the State Development Planning Commission, who attributed the slowdown to the possibility of a war against Iraq and the fact that markets for many of China's export commodities were already close to saturation. Zhang Feng from the State Information Centre forecast growth of around 10 per cent, giving trade protectionism and the budgetary pressure of export tax rebates as the reasons.
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