China's Ministry of Commerce predicts the consumer price index, a key gauge of inflation, will rise by 2.5% this year, state media reported. The rise will be caused by high oil and grain prices. Last year, the consumer price index rose by 1.5%. However, the central bank said it does not expect the index to rise beyond 3% this year, Reuters reported. The ministry expects retail sales this year to grow by 13% to US$1.1 billion. Sales grew by 14% last year.