The Lowy Institute is a think tank in Australia which does some good stuff on China. It just issued its Southeast Asia Influence Index, which now has China with an overall score of 65 out of 100, a one-point lead over its nearest rival, the United States, making it the “most influential power” in six of the region’s 11 countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. This is such an own-goal for the US, which brings to mind the spectacle of Trump telling the assembled representatives of the nations of the world this week at the UN that they are all going to hell.
The fickleness of the US under Mr T is driving this process, but that also works both ways—his sudden about-turn on Ukraine could lead to a breakthrough. We will see. But in terms of Southeast Asia and elsewhere in the Global South, it is basically the absence of the West that has provided the opportunity for China to become such a prominent player, rather than any inbuilt good feelings or positive contributions.
The extremist approach of Trump 2.0, as exemplified by his UN speech, is risky for the US, and challenges people and countries to respond. The response, internationally, is that China’s influence grows. And domestically (in the US), we have this week seen an extraordinary example of the limits of Trumpist power in terms of late-night TV comedians. Jimmy Kimmel’s show was suspended due to pressure from Trump because he hates the jokes. He of course denied that and said Kimmel was cancelled because of poor ratings. But Kimmel’s return monologue on Tuesday had by Friday garnered an incredible 21 million views on YouTube.
This is a time of great change globally. But our view is to be wary of reaching conclusions too early. The transparency gap creates a huge possibility of miscalculation. The US is ridiculously transparent, too much information. China is ridiculously opaque, too little information.
Speaking of which, there are various rumors about possible changes coming up next month. We discount many of them. Our view is that the big guy is solidly in control and is heading eventually towards being elevated to the position of “party chairman,” a position held by Mao, then by Hua Guofeng, then abolished in 1982.
Have a great weekend.