Russian Roulette

The events in Russia over the past week have been watched most closely in China, and with just as much puzzlement as anywhere else in the world. Russia is just another world, and Western logic, and perhaps Chinese logic, just doesn’t seem to work in terms of trying to figure out what is happening. But the apparent coup attempt by the Wagner boss against his paymaster and mentor Putin and the way it played out with Wagner moving to Belarus, at its most basic level, has to have made Putin’s hold on power more wobbly, and therefore Russia a more wobbly friend to its brother to the east. The Russian and Chinese governments have been united for years in their desire to undermine the global system backed by the West all these decades and move to a more multilateral and less constraining system. But if Russia should fall out of the game, then China is more isolated and also less likely to engage in adventurism. So this is a moving target and all the experts seem to agree that there are more developments to come in the Russian drama. It’s amazing how Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine last year just tipped over the whole table. History has sped up. Stay buckled up. And have a good weekend.