Well, dear readers, we are now less than two weeks away from having someone surnamed Trump in the Oval Office, which is just terra incognita for all of us, but the chances of a “trade war” are clearly growing. Whether that is a bad thing, or the inevitable result of 30 years of Kissinger-inspired appeasement is entirely debatable, but our view has always been that China needs the US more than the US needs China, and that China is also more sensitive to the potential negatives that could ensue.
Meanwhile, the People’s Bank this week reminded those in Europe and the US in favor of granting China “market economy” status that it is not a market economy. The RMB was pushed up 2.5% in just two trading days, which is of course just what forex reserves are for – smacking people in the market who are trying to work out investment strategies based on clear trends.
Land policy received a touch of clarification, with key leases in Wenzhou getting rolled over for no fees payable. But the concept of precedent doesn’t hold under the Chinese legal system, and the 2016 Wenzhou case may in the end be most significant for highlighting the tenuous nature of property “ownership” in China. Meanwhile, for light relief, Alibaba, is suing several vendors on Taobao for offering counterfeit goods. That’ll teach ’em. Have a pleasant weekend.