A busy week all round, boys and girls. What happens in the US impacts on everything else, so we will start there. The evidence is building that we were correct in our view, held since the first Spicer press conference, that this Trump arrangement is unsustainable. The turning point was probably Trump accusing Comey of “grandstanding”; Comey’s reaction has to have been – you’re going down. From then on, it was only a matter of time before Comey speaks publicly. Our guess is, further, that Comey and Mueller, both dedicated public servants, understand the threat that the continuation of the Trump presidency poses for the world and America alike. Comey declined an invitation to speak to Congress in private, strengthening the likelihood that he intends to try and bring Trump down with public disclosures that will make it impossible for Ryan and other Republicans to continue to support Trump.
And what of China? Moody’s downgraded China’s creditworthiness, a very important signal of the international financial community’s view on the seriousness of the debt problem and other elements of China’s financial system. A US naval vessel sailed through portions of the South China Sea claimed by China, the first time since Trump administration took office. Two Chinese people were kidnapped in Pakistan – welcome to the flip side of OBOR. And the social media battles involving Guo Wengui and the allegations of corruption at the top stepped up a gear.
There’s a lot of stuff in flux right now, as we head into a long weekend. Watch this and many other spaces for developments.