whither RMB?

The RMB is continuing to edge upwards. Will it stop at 7.79 to the US dollar – the rate at which the HK dollar has been pegged for more than 20 years? Unlikely, in that there is no benefit right now in terms of linkage, given that Beijing seems to have no plans to go for full convertibility. So where will the RMB be at, say, the end of 2007? I asked one person I trust and the guess was – 7. China’s trade will remain in surplus, there is no reason not to let the currency strengthen gradually. The RMB looks like a good currency bet regardless of convertibility issues.